[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222001
SWODY1
SPC AC 222000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
P07 15 SSW FST 30 NW INK 10 N HOB 30 WSW LBB 50 SSE LBB BWD ACT SHV
45 SSE GLH MEI LUL 30 ENE BTR 30 S LCH ...CONT... 40 SW PSX 20 SW
ALI LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 WSW TUS 25 E GBN
50 SW PRC 65 ENE DAG 20 SW P38 20 WSW U17 20 W CEZ 35 SE DRO 25 W
LVS 20 ENE DHT 35 SW GAG 25 NE FSI 15 N PGO 25 SSW DYR 45 S BNA 40
NW AND 40 SSE SPA 30 ENE AGS 70 ESE MCN 25 NW ABY 25 NW AQQ
...CONT... 20 SE CRP 45 S ALI 30 WNW MFE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT LIES
FROM A WEAK LOW OVER S CENTRAL TX ENEWD ACROSS SERN TX THEN EWD
ACROSS SRN LA. ALSO...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER SERN AZ AND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SWRN AZ.  THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND BE LOCATED OVER S CENTRAL NM/EXTREME W TX BY 23/12Z.

...S CENTRAL TX EWD INTO LA/MS...

SERIES OF STRONG...SOMETIMES SEVERE...STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
ALONG/JUST N OF QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS
BEEN SHOWING STRONG SRN STREAM JET FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ENEWD OVER
THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO PLACING MUCH OF THE REGION IN FAVORABLE LEFT
FRONT QUAD ENHANCING SHEAR AND UVV ACROSS THE AREA IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT.  AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION IS ABLE TO TAKE PLACE AS
AREAS OF HEATING ARE OCCURRING S OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH NEAR 80. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW
70S AND MLCAPE IS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG.  IT SEEMS TO BE THAT THE LOCAL
AFFECT OF THE BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST KM
ALLOWING STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES ACROSS THIS
REGION.

MODELS SHOW THAT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
ALONG THE TX GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA HELPING
TO SLOWLY LIFT BOUNDARY AS A WARM FRONT.  FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THEN ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN FAVORABLE IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL TX...

PHASE TWO OF SEVERE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVES INTO SWRN/S CENTRAL NM TONIGHT.  COOLING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AS SECONDARY LOW
LEVEL JET USHERS IN WEAK WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REGION. LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8C/KM ARE ANTICIPATED INTO
WEST CENTRAL TX TONIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE RUC AND ETA
INDICATE THAT FREEZING LEVELS COULD BE 4000-6000 FT AGL INDICATING
THAT EVEN SHALLOW CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THESE MODELS
ALSO INDICATE MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG SUPPORTING UPDRAFTS
AHEAD OF ADVANCING VIGOROUS TROUGH.

..MCCARTHY.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.