[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230607
SWODY1
SPC AC 230605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
PSX 20 W VCT 25 NE BWD MWL 40 SW DUA 40 ENE PRX 30 S ELD 25 NW HEZ
25 ESE HEZ 30 S MCB 25 SSE HUM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
CRP 40 NE COT 45 NNW SAT 35 W BWD 20 ENE LBB 20 NE PVW 35 E CSM 50
SW TUL 20 ENE FSM 60 ENE PBF 35 W CBM 30 SW 0A8 40 NNE CEW 10 SE
PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE DMN 15 N TCS 15
WNW ONM ABQ 20 NNE LVS 25 NE CAO 15 N LBL 15 WNW ICT 20 S SZL 20 WNW
SLO 30 S BMG 45 NNW LEX 30 W BLF 10 WNW LYH 15 NW ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CRE 55 S CAE 50
S AGS 60 N AYS 10 N VLD 35 SE TLH.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...A SMALL
PART OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...MUCH OF LOUISIANA....AND A SMALL PART
OF SOUTHWEST MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...

WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...
AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TX....MUCH OF LA...AND SWRN MS. MORE SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL...HIGH WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES FROM PARTS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK TO AR...MUCH OF MS AND A
PORTION OF SWRN AL.

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED 85-90KT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MS
VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. VERY PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN PLAINS AND NWRN GULF COAST WHERE
A COMBINATION OF MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AND MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASSES WILL YIELD POCKETS OF STRONG INSTABILITY.

IN RESPONSE TO STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM OVER NRN TX LATER TODAY AND TRACK TO NRN AR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT GULF COAST STATIONARY/WARM FRONT
DELINEATING NRN EDGE OF TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIR WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ALIGNED WITH INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW JUST INLAND
FROM THE NWRN GULF COAST...FROM VCT TO HOU TO LCH. EVENTUALLY THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AND INLAND ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND PARTS OF THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE OZARKS...AND LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR.

...CNTRL TO NERN TX...
SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
EARLY TODAY FROM NWRN TX INTO CNTRL TX AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
AND INTENSE UPWARD MOTION SPREAD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. RESIDUAL
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS NORTH OF THE GULF COAST FRONT OVER ERN TX
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MODIFYING DUE TO DIABATIC EFFECTS OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS MOISTENING HAS RESULTED
IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE LOWER 60S FROM THE HILL
COUNTRY TO THE RED RIVER... WITH MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE HILL COUNTRY.

DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN A STEADY INCREASE IN SURFACE-BASED 
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NWD TO THE METROPLEX
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
WLY FLOW AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER OVER NRN MEXICO AND WEST TX WILL
ALLOW DRYLINE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING SPREADS EAST ATOP THE ADVANCING DRYLINE. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL STRONGLY FAVOR ROTATING STORMS WITH NUMEROUS LONG TRACK
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF
FORCING...INSTABILITY...AND SHEAR ALL FAVOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS FROM THE HILL COUNTRY NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH LATE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE N-S BAND OF FORCING/STORMS INTERSECT THE
WARM FRONT OVER THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EVOLVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST (SEE BELOW).

EVENTUALLY STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SURGE SHOULD
PROMOTE INCREASINGLY LINEAR STRUCTURE EVOLVING FROM DISCRETE
CONVECTION. THIS SQUALL LINE COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER A
RATHER LARGE AREA FROM EAST TX ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR AND WRN MS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

...TX GULF COAST...SRN LA...MS/AL...
PERSISTENT AND INCREASING INFLOW OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
NEARLY STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN NUMEROUS INTENSE
STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL FLOW AND GRADUALLY BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT TORNADO
POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE STEADILY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEVERAL LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE LA
GULF COAST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER MAY
SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS NEW ORLEANS AND AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL MS BY
EVENING. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAR INLAND TRUE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON GIVEN WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES WERE KEPT LOWER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF SERN LA.
PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES
IF AIR MASS RECOVERY IS GREATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 11/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.