[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221624
SWODY1
SPC AC 221623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PSX 20 SW ALI LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 30 NNE MRF GDP ROW 50 SSE
CVS 50 SSE LBB BWD ACT SHV 45 SSE GLH MEI LUL MCB 30 S LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CRP 45 S ALI 30
WNW MFE ...CONT... 60 SE YUM 50 W GBN 70 ENE BLH 40 NNW IGM 40 E SGU
20 WSW U17 25 ENE 4BL 35 SE DRO 25 W LVS 20 ENE DHT 35 SW GAG 25 NE
FSI 15 N PGO 25 SSW DYR 45 S BNA 40 NW AND 40 SSE SPA 30 ENE AGS 70
ESE MCN 25 NW ABY 25 NW AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM/WRN TX EWD ACROSS LWR
MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG UPPER LOW SRN CA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS  SWRN CANADA.  MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT BY 12Z TUESDAY WITH
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO FAR SWRN TX AS 80-90KT 500MB JET MAX ACROSS
NRN MEXICO.  

AT THE SURFACE THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS BEEN
FOCUS FOR REPEAT STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST COUPLE DAYS FROM S
CENTRAL TX EWD TO JUST INLAND GULF COAST ACROSS SRN MS/SRN AL
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THRU TONIGHT.

A VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR PERSISTS TO S OF
FRONTAL ZONE.

...SCENTRAL TX EWD TO SRN MS...
THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS AREA TO
MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE AND ANY
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY.  WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR
COASTAL AREAS OF TX/LA WILL RANGE UPWARDS TO 2000 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON.  COUPLED WITH 20-25 KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR AND ENHANCED
HELICITY AND CONVERGENCE  VICINITY BOUNDARIES THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF BRIEF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL. 

SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
 LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WHERE STORMS EVOLVE INTO
SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/SMALL BOWS.

...W CENTRAL TX/SERN NM...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK NWWD INTO SERN NM/SWRN TX
DURING PERIOD WITH APPROACH OF STRONG UPPER LOW.  INCREASING UPWARD
MOTION WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN NM/SWRN TX DURING THE NIGHT IN
THE EXIT REGION OF THE STRONG JET CROSSING NRN MEXICO. WHILE AIRMASS
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...THE INCREASING SHEAR
AND UPWARD MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW WHICH COULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.  THUS A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL STILL SEEM
POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z SERN NM INTO WCENTRAL TX.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.