[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221241
SWODY1
SPC AC 221240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST MON NOV 22 2004

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PSX 20 SW ALI LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 30 NNE MRF GDP ROW 50 SSE
CVS 50 SSE LBB BWD ACT SHV 45 SSE GLH MEI LUL MCB 30 S LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CRP 35 S ALI
10 E MFE ...CONT... 60 SE YUM 30 WSW GBN 60 WSW PRC 40 NNW IGM 40 E
SGU 20 WSW U17 25 NW CEZ 20 N DRO 40 WSW RTN 45 S EHA 20 SSE GAG OKC
55 NW LIT 10 SSW DYR 45 S BNA 40 NW AND 15 S CLT 15 NE FLO 35 SW ILM
...CONT... 20 N JAX 20 ESE VLD 30 NE TLH 15 SSE PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST NM...ACROSS MUCH
OF TX...INTO PARTS OF LA/MS...

...SOUTH TX INTO MS...
POWERFUL UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH BAND OF 60-90 KNOT 500MB
WINDS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WEST TX BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...A BROAD REGION OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS IS PRESENT ACROSS TX INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES.  EMBEDDED WEAK FEATURES IN THE FLOW REGIME ARE RESULTING IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF TX...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY
OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LYING FROM SOUTH TX INTO SOUTHERN LA. 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ARE PRESENT SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...WHERE AT LEAST A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM THE SAT AREA EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL LA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS.  STRONG DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/BOWS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

...WEST TX/SOUTHEAST NM...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS STRONG DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...APPROACH OF UPPER SYSTEM FROM
THE WEST WILL COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPEN LAPSE RATES BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY BY 00Z OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST
TX...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF TX OVERNIGHT.  WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY ALLOW ISOLATED
STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.