[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220559
SWODY1
SPC AC 220557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
PSX 20 N CRP 40 SW ALI 15 SE LRD 50 WSW COT 10 ESE DRT 45 NNW DRT 30
NNE MRF 30 SSW GDP 45 WNW CNM 20 NE ROW 50 SSE CVS 50 SSE LBB 15 W
BWD ACT 35 SW SHV 55 E MLU 30 N MEI 25 E MEI 30 E LUL 35 NNE BTR 30
S LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E SAV 60 SE MCN 40
W ABY 10 WNW PNS ...CONT... 30 ENE CRP 40 S ALI 10 ESE MFE
...CONT... 60 SE YUM 30 WSW GBN 60 WSW PRC 40 NNW IGM 40 E SGU 20
WSW U17 25 NW CEZ 20 N DRO 40 WSW RTN 45 S EHA 20 SSE GAG OKC 55 NW
LIT 10 SSW DYR 45 S BNA 40 NW AND 15 S CLT 15 NE FLO 35 SW ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN...CNTRL AND
SERN TX...SRN LA...AND A SMALL PORTION OF MS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN CA WILL TURN EAST AND
MOVE ACROSS AZ/NM THIS PERIOD WHILE A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SPREADS SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A BROAD BELT
OF MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO SERN TX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A WARM FRONT ALIGNED WITH THIS BAND OF FAST
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW INTENSIFIES AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD BACKS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING WRN TROUGH/LOW. AS THE WRN TROUGH BEGINS TO EMERGE
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY...LARGE SCALE COUPLING OF
POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JETS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
STRONG SLOPED ASCENT...AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...FROM ERN
NM/NWRN TX TO THE TN VALLEY.

AT LEAST TWO FEATURES MAY PLAY A ROLE IN SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST WILL BE THE WARM FRONT FROM TX EWD
TO LA/MS. THE SECOND FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER LOW...AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...OCCURRING ACROSS NM AND WEST TX LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

...SE TX...LA...MS...
EXPECT WARM FRONT TO REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS MOISTURE FLUX INTO AND ACROSS THE FRONT GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES.
22/00Z RAOBS FROM ACROSS TX INDICATED RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
REMAIN SITUATED ATOP VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LAPSE RATE PLUME
IS LIKELY BEING MAINTAINED BY PERSISTENT WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OFF
THE HIGHER MEXICAN TERRAIN AND WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE THE MUCAPE
VALUES IN THE 800-1200 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE FRONT. LOW AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...IN ADDITION TO
MESOSCALE/DIABATIC FORCING...WILL ACT TO OVERCOME CAPPING AND
ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTM CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
DURING THE DAY AND EVENING. BOTH ETA AND GFS APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT
WEAK SURFACE DEVELOPMENT AND STRONGER UPWARD MOTION WILL BE
CONCENTRATED IN A NARROW ZONE FROM SCNTRL TX TO MS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45KT ACROSS THIS ZONE
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE
UPDRAFTS. A FEW SEVERE HAIL AND WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR.

THERE MAY BE A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SCNTRL TX BY EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THIS AREA. ACTIVITY MAY THEN
DEVELOP NWD/NEWD OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES IN
ADVANCE OF NM UPPER LOW. THIS CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A COUPLE OF
HAIL AND/OR WIND REPORTS.

...SERN NM/WEST TX LATE...
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD EWD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
WRN EXTENTION OF LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS BY EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL /AOB 1000 J/KG/...
SEVERAL BANDS OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NM AND FAR WEST TX AND
THEN ROTATE EWD/NEWD AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER LOW. DESPITE LACK
OF GREATER INSTABILITY...MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND WIND POTENTIAL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.