[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220100
SWODY1
SPC AC 220059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE GBN 45 ESE EED
55 NE IGM PGA 4BL 30 W SAF 20 SSW ONM 50 WSW SVC 40 SSE GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW P07 30 SSW FST
15 WNW MAF 55 NNE BGS 65 WSW SPS 35 ESE SPS 35 ENE PRX 15 NNE ELD 15
SSW GLH CBM 10 NW BHM 35 ENE ANB 30 E ATL 50 SSE AHN 65 ESE MCN 45
NW AYS 10 NNE MGR 25 ENE MAI 35 E CEW 20 E PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST...
DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SSWWD ACROSS SRN CA AND THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING WITH STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...ACROSS AZ/NM...SRN UT AND CO. A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THESE
AREAS GIVEN STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING/DPVA AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOB 250
J/KG/ SHOULD KEEP SEVERE TSTM PROBABILITY QUITE LOW.

...TX AND THE NWRN GULF COAST...
AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF MODEST SWLY/WLY MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WRN STATES UPPER LOW. WEAK PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...COUPLED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING
ACROSS GULF COAST WARM FRONT...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROMOTE POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE BULK OF THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ON OR NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE AIR PARCELS WILL ATTAIN A
RELATIVELY LOW LFC DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOPPED BY
700-500MB LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. WHILE OVERALL FORCING FOR
STRONG ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK WITH BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
PERSISTENT INFLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD
STILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND EVENT OVERNIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 11/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.