[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211955
SWODY1
SPC AC 211953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAN 65 SSW LAS
50 SSW SGU 30 SE BCE 30 SE 4HV 40 SE CNY 35 E GJT 25 SE ASE ALS 20
WNW PVW 20 SW CDS 25 W SPS 35 NNE DUA 50 WSW HOT 15 W PBF 20 S UOX
45 S MSL 20 WSW ATL 20 E MCN 45 WNW AYS 15 SSE MGR 20 WNW TLH 10 WSW
PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S CRP 20 S LRD.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SUBTROPICAL JETLET MOVING INTO
NRN MEXICO AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL TX TONIGHT. 
THE LOW LEVELS SEEM TO ALREADY BE RESPONDING TO THIS FEATURE WITH
WRN PART OF THE FRONT BISECTING S TX BEGINNING TO RETREAT NWD. 
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH
TONIGHT.  GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY/CNTRL TX WWD INTO PARTS OF THE
TRANSPECOS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.  STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TX...BUT MUCAPES TO 500
J/KG AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY AUGMENT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
PRODUCTION FARTHER NORTH.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT SITUATED FROM KDFW REGION TO
KMAF.

...AZ...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SWD INTO THE SRN CA DESERTS ATTM WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM ACROSS AZ.  LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE ALONG THE RIM BENEATH THE VENTING ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.  BUOYANCY REMAINS WEAK OWING TO
LACK OF INSOLATION...BUT KINEMATIC PROFILES ARE IMPRESSIVE AND
SET-UP IS IDEAL FOR BANDS OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS TO BACKBUILD SWD
OFF THE RIM INTO THE DESERTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  ONE OR TWO TSTMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE
LIMITED.

...SRN LA...
THREAT FOR A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN LA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG E-W FRONT AS PER MCD 2419.  STORMS NOW
LOCATED VCNTY FRONT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG.  MAIN
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE WEATHER IS THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  BUT...LOW LCLS AND STORMS RIDING THE BOUNDARY GIVE RISE TO AT
LEAST A LOW PROBABILISTIC TORNADO THREAT.

..RACY.. 11/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.