[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211633
SWODY1
SPC AC 211631

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SAN 65 SSW LAS
50 SSW SGU 30 SE BCE 30 SE 4HV 40 SE CNY 35 E GJT 25 SE ASE 10 SSE
ALS 20 SSE SAF 60 E 4CR 40 SW CVS 20 W PVW 20 SW CDS 25 W SPS 35 NNE
DUA 50 WSW HOT 15 W PBF 20 S UOX 45 S MSL 20 WSW ATL 20 E MCN 45 WNW
AYS 15 SSE MGR 20 WNW TLH 10 WSW PFN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INTENSE UPPER LOW HAS DEVELOPED SWD OVERNIGHT AND CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR LAX. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW WILL REMAIN VICINITY SRN CA
UNTIL UPSTREAM TROUGH IN NRN BRANCH MOVING INTO SWRN CANADA ON MON
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE IT. MOIST SWLY FLOW PERSISTS DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER
LOW ACROSS SRN PLAINS WITH A FLAT RIDGE AND CONFLUENT FLOW SERN U.S.


QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM S TX EWD VICINITY GULF COAST WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER PLAINS
PERSISTS.

...SWRN U.S...
COMPLEX FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH SLOW MOVING N/S COLD FRONT WRN AZ AND
A SEPARATE FRONTAL ZONE AHEAD OF DIGGING LOW MOVING THRU SAN DIEGO
COUNTY ATTM.

WILL CONTINUE A LOW PROBABILITY OF HAIL/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL SAN
DIEGO COUNTY...HOWEVER PRIMARY THREAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA
WHICH HAS MOVE E OF COASTAL AREAS.  WITH COLD UPPER LOW IN AREA THRU
THE DAY LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THRU MID
AFTERNOON.

WITH LOW MOVING LITTLE TODAY...STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND UPWARD
MOTION WILL PERSIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  FRONT WILL BE 
SLOW TO MOVE E AND ALLOW MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE FROM
CENTRAL BASINS INTO S CENTRAL DESERTS THRU THE AFTERNOON.  WITH
50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO POSSIBLY 500 J/KG...A
FEW ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL  UNTIL THIS
EVENING.

...SWRN TX...
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES TONIGHT TO 20-30KT ACROSS WRN TX. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING UPWARD MOTION WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WHICH
COUPLED WITH ADVECTION OF THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN S TX RESULTS IN
AN EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH 
ELEVATED CAPES UPWARDS TO 1000 J/KG AND MDT/STG DEEP LAYER SHEAR 
WILL CONTINUE LOW THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
OVERNIGHT.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.