[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211242
SWODY1
SPC AC 211240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2004

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW OXR 10 ENE EDW
30 SSE DRA 25 E P38 55 W 4HV 10 NNE U28 45 N GJT 15 E EGE 10 SSE ALS
45 SE SAF 60 E 4CR 35 E CVS 25 N PVW 40 NNE CDS 30 NW FSI 35 NNE DUA
50 WSW HOT 15 W PBF 20 S UOX 20 NNE GAD 30 NW AHN 40 NNW AGS 45 SSW
AGS 50 SSE MCN 25 W MGR AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CA THIS
MORNING...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
THE 4-CORNERS REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY.  WEAK SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF TX WILL MAINTAIN A
MOIST AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST TX. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND MUCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL ROTATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TX THIS
EVENING.  INCREASING UVVS AND SOME STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  WEAK CAPE
VALUES AND ONLY MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...AZ...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CA TODAY...WITH EXIT REGION OF JET MOVING INTO AZ THIS
AFTERNOON.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROVIDE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...COUPLED WITH
STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS TODAY.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

...SOUTHERN CA COAST...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW NEAR SAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BENEATH COLD UPPER LOW.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL.  STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MIGHT ALSO FAVOR A
RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OR BRIEF TORNADOES AS CELLS COME ASHORE.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 11/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.