[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201628
SWODY1
SPC AC 201627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
VCT 45 W NIR 15 ENE SAT 35 ESE CLL 25 SE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 15 NW FST
ROW 50 ENE SAD 65 SW SOW 75 S GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 45 S LAS
30 SE CDC 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW TAD 20 N EHA 50 NNE CSM 25 WNW ADM 20
NNW ELD 50 SW CBM 25 SW ANB 20 ENE LGC 10 ESE ABY 10 ESE AQQ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SCENTRAL AND SERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING RAPIDLY SWD WRN U.S. BY END OF PERIOD
DEVELOPS A STRONG UPPER LOW VICINITY SRN NV. DOWNSTREAM A BROAD SWLY
FLOW IS MAINTAINED EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO APPALACHIANS. 
WEAKER S/WV TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...WITH ONE CURRENTLY
OVER NM MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BY SUN AM.

AT THE SURFACE E/W FRONTAL ZONE THAT WAS MOSTLY OVER NRN GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING NWD AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
SERN LA WWD TO JUST S OF HOU AND THEN INLAND ACROSS SRN TX NEAR COT.


COMBINATION OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING THE STRONG UPPER JET
ACROSS MEXICO INTO TX AND RICH LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM WRN GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG WITH LIFT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE HAS RESULTED IN AN 
EXPANDING AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION SERN TX TO SRN MS.

...TX...

SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E/W FRONT. ATTM THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
A LITTLE FURTHER N ACROSS SCENTRAL TX BUT LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST HOU AREA EWD AS ONGOING CONVECTION RETARDS BOUNDARY MOVING
FURTHER INLAND.

WITH 25-30KT OF LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE 50-60KT OF MID
LEVEL FLOW THAT IS PROGGED ACROSS CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.  THE CURRENT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW
THE DISSIPATION OF THE CIN ACROSS SCENTRAL TX VICINITY OF FRONTAL
ZONE...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOW 80S S OF FRONT.

WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO LOW 70S...AFTERNOON MLCAPES WILL CLIMB
TO ABOVE 2K J/KG SRN TX.  NEAR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY
FRONT...WITH PRIMARY CONCERN ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE
THREAT EXPECTED TO INITIALLY OCCUR SCENTRAL TX NEAR FRONT AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND EWD TOWARD THE HOU AREA BY THIS EVENING.

FURTHER NW IN HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX...LAPSE RATES ARE A LITTLE
STEEPER...7C/KM...UNDER THE UPPER JET AND NEARER THE S/WV TROUGH
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASING THIS AREA ON SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY W CENTRAL TX BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY THREAT TO BE  LARGE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. 
STORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL LIKELY
ENDING BY LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.