[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201253
SWODY1
SPC AC 201252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
VCT 45 W NIR 30 S SAT 35 NNW HOU 25 SE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW YUM 25 SSE LAS
30 S CDC 15 ESE GJT 50 NNW ALS 20 SSE EHA 50 NNE CSM 25 WNW ADM 25 E
TXK 15 E GWO 30 NW TCL 20 ENE LGC 10 ESE ABY 10 SW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE P07 15 E INK
30 ESE 4CR 10 NNE ONM 75 SSW GNT 65 SW SOW 75 S GBN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST TX...

...SOUTHEAST TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING FROM
AZ/NM ACROSS TX.  MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR
LRD...ALONG THE CRP/GLS COAST...INTO SOUTHERN LA.  ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT JUST OFFSHORE IN
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS.  THESE STORMS WERE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MO/AR.  HGX VAD
PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL POSE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...
ESPECIALLY IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHWARD.

...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TX...
RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE
PRESENT THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TX AS SHOWN IN 12Z SOUNDINGS. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL HEATING FROM THE HILL COUNTRY INTO NORTHWEST TX
THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG AND A RATHER WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 11/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.