[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201958
SWODY1
SPC AC 201957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2004

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
VCT 20 NNW NIR 20 SE AUS 30 NNW HOU 25 SE BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE P07 15 NW FST
ROW 50 ENE SAD 65 SW SOW 75 S GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW YUM 45 S LAS
30 SE CDC 15 ESE GJT 30 NNW TAD 20 N EHA 50 NNE CSM 25 WNW ADM 20
NNW ELD 50 SW CBM 25 SW ANB 30 SSE ATL 15 NNE VLD 40 WNW CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN TX...

...TX...
19Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A WARM FRONT FROM ANGLETON WWD TO THE
ESCARPMENT SE OF NEW BRAUNFELS.  WARM SECTOR HAS DESTABILIZED AND
GIVEN NEAR 80F/70F...MLCAPES HAD CLIMBED TO 1500-2000 J/KG. 
MAJORITY OF THE TSTMS TODAY HAVE BEEN ON COLD SIDE OF FRONT WELL
NORTH OF HOUSTON AND EAST OF AUSTIN.  BUT...N-S CONVERGENCE ZONE
BETWEEN VICTORIA AND SAN ANTONIO IS PROVING FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND MOVE NEWD BEFORE
CROSSING THE WARM FRONT.  VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM IS
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND THE ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
HELICITY VCNTY THE FRONT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AS
THE CELLS MOVE INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.  

OTHERWISE...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSCD WITH H5 TROUGH MOVING
INTO W TX ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD AND SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL/NCNTRL TX.  MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE IS NOSING NWWD INTO CNTRL TX WITH MUCAPES TO 1000
J/KG.  THE TSTMS APPEAR TO BE NEAR-SURFACE BASED PER SATELLITE AND
RECENT SPIKE IN VILS.  THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC SET-UP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.  AS
THE H5 TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX.  STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
WITHIN SRN PARTS OF THE RAIN SHIELD AND WILL LIKELY JOIN WITH THE
TSTMS ALREADY LOCATED ACROSS SERN TX.

..RACY.. 11/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.