[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200544
SWODY1
SPC AC 200542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S YUM 30 SE LAS 10
ESE SGU 10 SSE GJT 30 SE GUC 55 N SAF SAF 35 SE GNT 50 E SOW 55 SSW
SOW 85 S GBN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE P07 15 NE INK
50 S CVS 25 NE CVS 10 ESE AMA CSM 10 SE ADM 10 SSE TXK GLH CBM 20
ENE LGC 10 NE ABY 15 SW AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE RETURN TO A MORE PRONOUNCED SPLIT FLOW REGIME DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  STRONG MID/UPPER JET...NOW DIGGING AROUND
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE INTO BROAD WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S.
TROUGH...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD...FROM THE LEE OF THE
CASCADES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE SIERRA NEVADA.  AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED LOW WILL EVENTUALLY EVOLVE IN
SOUTHERN PORTION OF UPPER TROUGH...ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IN  NORTHERN PORTION OF TROUGH CONTINUES
SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING PATTERN...STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN A BROAD BELT OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE NATION.  IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST...AND THE LACK OF A STRONGER/MORE PRONOUNCED INTRUSION OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR EAST OF THE ROCKIES...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING.  LACK OF DEVELOPMENT OF STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THIS REGION STILL APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
WITH REGARD TO SEVERE THREAT AND MORE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...IN ADDITION TO LACK OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS.

...SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 70F FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WHILE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN TO FORM FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF STATES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...A
GRADUAL NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR. 
THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AROUND
DAYBREAK...THEN FARTHER INLAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL
AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THOUGH LAPSE RATES BENEATH
SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME WILL BE WEAK...MODELS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.


DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS/
LOUISIANA COAST EARLY IN THE DAY...SUPPORTED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW
REGIME.  ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...NORTH OF
COASTAL FRONT...DURING THE DAY AND WEAKEN...BUT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG 20 TO 30 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

MAGNITUDE OF CAPE WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  HAIL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. 
HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO...BUT EVEN THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE MARGINALIZED BY
SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES.

STRONGER CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD...DEEPER
INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS
COASTAL FRONT PROGRESSES INLAND.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL TEXAS...
WITH SLOWER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF COLD SURFACE HIGH IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE WEST TEXAS HIGH PLAINS TODAY.  WEAK SURFACE
HEATING BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF CYCLONIC UPPER
JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ...AND CAPE OF
500 TO 1000 J/KG APPEARS POSSIBLE.  AIDED BY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW
REGIME DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW...ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS....MAINLY
NORTH/EAST OF THE MIDLAND AREA.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR HAIL...AND WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION...ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE
LIMITS.

..KERR/TAYLOR.. 11/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.