[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200057
SWODY1
SPC AC 200056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST FRI NOV 19 2004

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BCE CNY MTJ ALS 15
SSE SAF 15 WSW ONM 10 SE SOW GCN BCE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO 40 W ALI 10
SE HDO 25 SE ACT MLU MCB 40 WSW HUM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

EVOLUTION OF LARGE-SCALE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN PACIFIC.

...WESTERN GULF COAST REGION..
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
BROADER SCALE FLOW REGIME...INCLUDING A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AN
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TR0UGH...NOW DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU.  MODELS SUGGEST NORTHEASTWARD/EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE
FEATURES...AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAKS...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.  THIS WILL ENHANCE UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION FIELD ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...FURTHER WEAKENING
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND SUPPORTING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN THE CORPUS CHRIST AREA
AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT
INCREASES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.  AS 20 KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS FROM THE LOWER INTO UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  SHALLOW
SURFACE-BASED INVERSION LAYER INLAND OF UPPER COASTAL AREAS STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT RISK FOR TORNADOES/DAMAGING WINDS.  WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WARM PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO
MINIMIZE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

...FOUR CORNERS STATES...
SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASE IN
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER JET DIGGING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/JET STREAK MIGRATES EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.  GIVEN
LIFT...WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY EVIDENT IN LATEST OBSERVED AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...MAINLY AFTER 20/06Z.

..KERR.. 11/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.