[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191622
SWODY1
SPC AC 191620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2004

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO COT 55 WNW
AUS 20 NW TYR SHV 10 W MCB 40 S GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/LA COAST...

STRONG RIDGING OFF W COAST WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING TROUGH WRN U.S.
OVER THE WEEKEND.  A WEAKENING S/WV TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE
EVOLVING WRN TROUGH ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS S/WV WILL BE TO AID IN A
GRADUAL RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO ERN TX/LA AND SRN MS AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO MORE SLY AND INCREASES TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT THIS
AREA.

THE STALLED E/W SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FROM S OF LA WWD INTO S TX WILL
ALSO SHIFT NWD TO AN E/W LINE VICINITY LA/UPR TX COAST TONIGHT.

COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY MOIST GULF AIR MASS AND LARGE SCALE LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM FRONTAL ZONE INLAND TONIGHT SHOULD RESULT
IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ANY SEVERE CONCERN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR THE UPR TX AND SWRN LA COAST OVERNIGHT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-40KT WHILE SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 15-20KT 
COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM OVERNIGHT NEAR FRONTAL
ZONE.  GIVEN THE GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE SHEAR...THE AVAILABLE MLCAPES OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO POSSIBLE BRIEF SUPERCELLS/AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.