[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191257
SWODY1
SPC AC 191256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST FRI NOV 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BRO 25 SSE COT
20 NE HDO 35 E ACT 30 SE GGG 20 W MCB 40 S GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE WRN CONUS. WEAK TO MODERATE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH NWD MOISTURE
RETURN AND WARM ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WRN
GULF COAST REGION LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATTM...PARAMETERS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA.

...SERN TX AND SWRN LA...
EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR MSY SWD INTO THE CENTRAL GOM.
PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NWWD DURING THE DAY...IN RESPONSE TO
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. MID LEVEL
INVERSION NOTED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY ERODE AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT DUE TO COUPLED JET STRUCTURE
DEVELOPMENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING OCCURS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS.

AS LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT...
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP INITIALLY NORTH OF THE NWD MOVING WARM
FRONT ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE TX GULF COAST WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR RAIN COOLED AIR INLAND
AND LACK OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS WITH ONLY MODEST DYNAMIC
FORCING....THE TRULY TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH DEWPTS IN THE LOWERS 70S
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFFSHORE. THUS THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
INLAND WILL BE MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY VALUES
/MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FURTHER SUPPORT THE
PRESENCE OF THE SHALLOW INVERSION NORTH OF THE MAIN SFC WARM FRONT
ALONG THE TX/SWRN LA GULF COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR /15-20 KT IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER/ THIS
INVERSION WILL LIMIT A WIND DAMAGE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

..CROSBIE/HART.. 11/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.