[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190534
SWODY1
SPC AC 190533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 10 ENE COT
35 NE JCT 50 WSW TYR 10 SSE SHV 30 W HEZ 40 S GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC...IS
UNDERWAY.  AS THIS PROCESS CONTINUES TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST A
POSITIVELY TILTED LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL EVOLVE/DEEPEN FROM
THE PACIFIC COAST STATES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC
BROADER SCALE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S...INCLUDING
NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY...AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS.

TIGHTENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  DESPITE LACK OF RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... MID 50S DEW POINTS NOW IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS SUFFICIENT FOR  THE EVOLUTION OF A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFYING AND ACCELERATING  OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLIER IN
THE DAY...SUBSIDENT MID-LEVEL REGIME IN ITS WAKE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.

...WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING...IN WAKE OF SOUTHERN BRANCH
IMPULSE NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...HAS
STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MODELS
SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL MODIFY SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT INCREASES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S APPEARS POSSIBLE OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY.  SUBSEQUENT
STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL
AREAS WILL OCCUR BY TONIGHT...ADVECTING MOISTURE INLAND...AND
SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

MID-LEVEL INHIBITION MAY BE SLOW  TO WEAKEN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST
UPPER FLOW FIELD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT ALONG TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH COUPLED HIGH LEVEL JETS LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD AND DEEPENING
CONVECTION...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY.  

THOUGH NOT STRONG...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.  HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS SURFACE-BASED
INVERSION LAYER SHOULD MINIMIZE TORNADO/SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT
INLAND OF IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 11/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.