[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190030
SWODY1
SPC AC 190029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE SOW 15 NW FMN
MTJ 45 E GUC 25 WSW TAD LVS 10 SW ONM 10 ENE SAD 10 ENE SOW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW 7R4 45 SW MLU
35 E MLU 35 NNE HEZ 30 SSE MCB 20 ENE BVE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
WEAK/SHALLOW CONVECTION IS ONGOING NEAR OCCLUDED SURFACE FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.  MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS IS
INHIBITING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND WITH STRENGTHENING CAPPING
INVERSION PROGGED THROUGH THE NIGHT...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY OROGRAPHY/SURFACE
HEATING BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DIMINISH SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM
IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING
ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...WHICH HAS ACCELERATED EAST OF
THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY.  AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING IN RESPONSE
TO MID-LEVEL WARMING AND WEAKENING/DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT INTO THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.

..KERR.. 11/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.