[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181615
SWODY1
SPC AC 181614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 30 SSE OLM
ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 15 W HOU 45
N BPT 30 NNW POE 20 WNW ELD 30 SE PGO 10 ESE FYV 10 SW UNO 20 SE POF
20 SSW MKL 20 SW TCL 35 SE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL OK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ENEWD INTO
SRN MO TONIGHT. PERSISTENT 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS NWD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO SLOW TRANSLATION OF
SRN PLAINS SYSTEM.

ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEAK 1017MB SURFACE LOW
OVER NWRN OK SEWD TO SABINE PASS AND OFF THE TX COASTLINE TO WHERE A
SEPARATE WEAK LOW CENTER EXISTS EAST OF CRP. NARROW SURFACE MOIST
AXIS EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OFFSHORE.
LARGE AREA OF RAIN EXISTS ALONG THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FORCED BY
DIFFERENTIAL PVA. EAST OF THIS REGION...MUCH DRIER/CONTINENTAL AIR
REMAINS ALONG THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

...CENTRAL/SRN LA...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EWD FROM THE SABINE RIVER
VICINITY IN WRN LA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE.
MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND INITIAL RAIN
AREA MOVING EWD INTO MS. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME CLOUD BREAKS
OVER S-CENTRAL LA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODEST AIR MASS RECOVERY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG AND MINIMAL CIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED BY
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL RAIN AREA AND MOTION OF UPPER
SYSTEM LIFTING ENEWD AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. ABSENCE OF
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE NWRN GULF COAST/FLATTENING PRESSURE FIELD
SHOULD RESULT IN LESSENING OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAGNITUDE AND LESS
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON...CONSISTENT
WITH ETA MODEL FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND TRENDS ON LCH VAD WIND
PROFILE. IF ISOLATED STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG OR IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENT
WOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IN THIS
AREA OWING TO ABSENT DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS TOO LOW FOR A SLIGHT
RISK.

..BANACOS/THOMPSON.. 11/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.