[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181228
SWODY1
SPC AC 181226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0626 AM CST THU NOV 18 2004

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 30 SSE OLM
ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 35 SSW CLL
45 SW LFK 30 NNW POE 20 WNW ELD 15 SSW MLC 20 S TUL SGF 20 SE POF 20
SSW MKL 40 NNE MEI 35 SE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER TX COAST INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER OK/ERN TX WILL CONTINUE
TO LOSE AMPLITUDE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE
MID/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEYS.  CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...
PRIMARY CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY WITH WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE SABINE
RIVER VALLEY.  COASTAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO
S-CENTRAL/SERN LA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT THROUGH THE DAY AND
ALLOW MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH
MARGINAL HEATING AND WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST...SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON... ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OR A BRIEF
TORNADO AS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD ACROSS SRN LA INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 11/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.