[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180543
SWODY1
SPC AC 180541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CST WED NOV 17 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE BLI 10 SW SEA
10 S AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE CRP 30 NE CLL
40 NW TYR 15 N DUA 55 E OKC 25 ENE TUL 30 SSW UNO MKL 40 NNE MEI 30
SE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

GENERALLY ZONAL SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BEFORE A LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH BEGINS TO EVOLVE IN THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  THIS
WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION IN NORTHERN BRANCH
OF WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PACIFIC.

EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH IS NOW MIGRATING INTO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST.  THIS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES BY EARLY FRIDAY
...CONTRIBUTING TO EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A COUPLE SOUTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. 

LEAD FEATURE IS NOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND SLOWLY WEAKENING WITHIN BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  FURTHER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR TODAY/TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS INTO THE LOWER
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACCELERATES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

...TEXAS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...WITH COOL/DRY SOUTHEASTERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE SLOW TO
WEAKEN...MODIFIED MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE TODAY...AS COOLER/DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF TEXAS.  THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  HOWEVER...POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG ACROSS THIS REGION FOR DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
INCREASING MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND MID-LEVEL COOLING IN RESPONSE TO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING INLAND EARLY TODAY MAY BE SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR/WEST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. 
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ON AND OFF THROUGH MID DAY...BEFORE ENVIRONMENT
BEGINS TO STABILIZE AS MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

..KERR.. 11/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.