[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140519
SWODY1
SPC AC 140517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 PM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 35 ENE DMN
30 W ROW 45 SSE CVS 45 ESE PVW 40 WSW SPS 25 N FTW 40 S DAL 30 SE
TPL 55 SSE AUS 25 SE PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES COMBINED WITH STRONG
NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SWRN STATES UPPER
LOW WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THIS LATTER SYSTEM OVER NRN
BAJA AND NWRN MEXICO TODAY.  AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES SWD...AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NWRN GULF TO SERN CO
WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER TX/SRN HIGH PLAINS BACKING THROUGH THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
EAST OF THE MS RIVER.  

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ELY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
ADVECTING MOISTURE WWD ACROSS TX AND AIDING IN AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY.  SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITHIN A REGION OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AS A 35-40 KT SELY LLJ NOSES INTO
THE TX HILL COUNTRY.  MODELS SHOW THIS LLJ WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 40
KT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND SLOWLY TRANSLATE WWD TOWARD WRN
TX.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF WRN/NWRN TX TODAY.  WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY
EXTENDING WWD TO SRN NM.

..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 11/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.