[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141242
SWODY1
SPC AC 141240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST SUN NOV 14 2004

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 35 ENE DMN
30 W ROW 45 SSE CVS 30 SW CDS 25 SSW LTS 45 E SPS 40 S DAL 55 E ACT
45 NE CLL 20 ENE GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX...
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM 06Z OUTLOOK...WITH MOST LIKELY
REGION FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING CONFINED TO MUCH OF TX.  EARLY
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE LOWER
TX COAST BETWEEN CRP AND BRO.  THIS WAVE HAS FORMED ALONG STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND ONSHORE FLOW
HAS ALLOWED LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS TO SPREAD INLAND JUST NORTH
OF THE WEAK LOW CENTER.  HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FLOW ALOFT
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN
GULF.  THUS...SURFACE WAVE WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY/PERSISTENCE OF ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS NEAR
THE SOUTH TX COAST.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MORE WIDESPREAD NORTH OF
THE FRONT AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE TX HILL
COUNTRY EARLY THIS MORNING.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN AGREEMENT
WITH 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS...AND SUGGEST MUCAPES WILL REMAIN MEAGER
THROUGH THE DAY.  HOWEVER...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
AND SPREAD NNEWD INTO NWRN TX TODAY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL WAA.  ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS/MCS MAY FORM ALONG NOSE
OF SELY LLJ LATER THIS EVENING INTO SWRN TX AND ALSO SPREAD NNEWD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH TX PLAINS.

..EVANS.. 11/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.