[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131248
SWODY1
SPC AC 131247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW TUS 35 SE EED
20 ESE LAS 20 WNW P38 15 NNW MLF 40 NW 4HV 40 SSE CNY 20 SE CEZ 20
NW SAF 40 SSE LVS 20 NNE CVS 25 NW LBB 65 ESE LBB 20 NNW ABI 15 E
BWD 20 SSW AUS 45 NE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ/NM/TX...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER AZ WITH
VORTICITY MAX/SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW
CENTER ACROSS NWRN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD
ACROSS NM TODAY AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGS SWD ALONG THE CA
COAST...MAINTAINING THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER AZ THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
SPREADING ACROSS NM AND SWRN/S CENTRAL TX IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.  COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR -22C ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND
RESULTING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SRN NM INTO SRN
TX.

THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD AND NEWD TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF NM AND TX.  THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NRN/ERN AZ AND SRN UT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING DESTABILIZES AIR MASS BENEATH COLD CORE
ALOFT. IN ADDITION...A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO DEVELOP
BY THIS EVENING OVER SRN TX WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION LIFT WITHIN
AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN A CONTINUED THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SRN TX TONIGHT.

..WEISS/TAYLOR.. 11/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.