[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130523
SWODY1
SPC AC 130521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM 45 W EED 20
ESE DRA 20 WNW P38 15 NNW MLF 40 NW 4HV 40 SSE CNY 20 SE CEZ 30 WSW
ABQ 25 ESE ALM 15 NNW CNM 50 SW LBB 65 ESE LBB 20 NNW ABI 15 E BWD
20 SSW AUS 45 NE CRP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S. TO SOUTH TX...

UPPER LOW OVER AZ IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL UPPER VORT MAXIMA WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS
NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS.  THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM AZ INTO
NM...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO AN AXIS FROM SRN CA INTO NWRN MEXICO.  MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE THERMAL PROFILE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SWRN U.S...BUT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED-SCT THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
BREAKS IN CLOUDINESS ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL HEATING.

DOWNSTREAM ACROSS TX...STRENGTHENING LLJ INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MARGINAL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE STRONG DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 11/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.