[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131634
SWODY1
SPC AC 131633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST SAT NOV 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW FHU 35 SE EED
30 SE LAS 45 NE LAS 20 NW CDC 10 NNE 4HV 35 NE 4BL 20 SE CEZ 40 WNW
ABQ 40 NNW 4CR 20 W CVS 60 ESE LBB 30 WNW SEP 40 W ACT 35 ENE AUS 40
SSW PSX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH
QUASI-STATIONARY MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE AZ AREA...A
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE MS VALLEY...AND THE NRN STREAM WLYS WELL
TO THE N ACROSS CANADA.  WITHIN THE SWRN STATES LOW...ONE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS NOW ROTATING NNEWD ACROSS W TX...AND THIS TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE NWD TODAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  ANOTHER UPSTREAM
SPEED MAX IS DIGGING SEWD NEAR THE SRN CA COAST AND SHOULD RESULT IN
REFORMATION OF THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE NRN GULF OF
CA AREA.

ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...IS ONGOING OVER
WRN/CENTRAL/NW TX.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NWD IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX...THOUGH ELEVATED CAPE
IS ALREADY MARGINAL AND A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
NWD EXTENT OF ANY THUNDERSTORM THREAT. OTHER ISOLATED/DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WITHIN THE
MID LEVEL COLD POOL WHERE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST.

ELSEWHERE...AN INITIAL WIND SHIFT IS DRIFTING SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL
FL...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED FRONTAL SURGE APPROACHING NE FL FROM THE
N/NE.  12Z SOUNDING ACROSS FL SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CUMULUS
CONVECTION...BUT A PRONOUNCED STABLE LAYER NEAR 600 MB AND A LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.