[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121247
SWODY1
SPC AC 121245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE PNS 15 W MGM
25 WSW RMG 45 SSE JKL 35 SE DOV ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY
...CONT... 75 S GBN 55 WNW GBN 25 ENE BLH 50 NW EED 55 NNW ELY 25
SSW BYI 30 SE BPI 50 NW CAG 25 NE GUC 20 S PUB 35 NE DHT 35 NW CDS
45 SSE CDS 55 NNW ABI 40 SSW ABI 35 WSW JCT DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN SRN STREAM OVER THE SERN U.S. IS CURRENTLY
PHASING WITH HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING.  ALSO...WATER VAPOR SHOWS STRONG
SHEAR ZONE OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS NOW DEVELOPED INTO STRONG
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION/MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER SRN CA.  THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND SRN PLATEAU REGION.

...SERN U.S. INTO SRN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COAST AREA...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER NERN AL
WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH A LOW JUST S OF THE
EXTREME WRN FL PANHANDLE...THEN CONTINUES SWWD AS A COLD FRONT.  A
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY REACHES FROM S CENTRAL AL SSEWD INTO THE
WRN FL KEYS.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LINE OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
 THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NWRN GA THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE...AND
JUST AHEAD OF MID/UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAX OVER SWRN KY.  PRIND
THAT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT INSOLATION AND ANY FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS...AS MODELS SHOW LOW REFORMING ON
THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER SC AND MOVING NEWD OFF NERN NC
 LATER TONIGHT.  THUS...LACK OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

...SWRN U.S. INTO THE TX HI PLAINS...

NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENING OVER SRN CA THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE ESEWD INTO SRN NV/MUCH OF AZ DURING THE PERIOD.  EXIT REGION OF
SRN BRANCH OF 110 KT UPPER JET WILL EXTEND EWD OVER NWRN MEXICO
ENHANCING DIVERGENT FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN ROCKIES REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
MODELS INDICATE THAT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7.5 C/KM ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN INTERMOUNTAIN AREAS FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW AS
MID LEVEL TEMPS OF -20C TO -22C MOVE OVER THE AREA.  AGAIN...LACK OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

..MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 11/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.