[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120547
SWODY1
SPC AC 120545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 55 WNW GBN
25 ENE BLH 50 NW EED 55 NNW ELY 25 SSW BYI 30 SE BPI 50 NW CAG 25 NE
GUC 15 NNE PUB 15 SSE EHA 35 NW CDS 45 SSE CDS 55 NNW ABI 40 SSW ABI
35 WSW JCT DRT ...CONT... 15 W PNS 50 S SEM 20 NNE GAD 45 SSE JKL 35
SE DOV ...CONT... 30 NNW DAB 50 SSE CTY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ABSORBED
WITHIN THE BASE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE WILL CERTAINLY
ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM THE SERN U.S. INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION AIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND LAYERED CLOUDINESS.  THIS
SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...ALTHOUGH WARM FRONT WILL RETURN NWD INTO SERN
VA BY MID AFTERNOON ALLOWING AT LEAST A MODIFIED WARM SECTOR TO
RETURN TO THE CAROLINAS.  IT APPEARS WEAK LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
WILL NOT ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION FOR ROBUST/SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION.  FOR THIS REASON THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN
OUTLOOK.

...SWRN U.S...

EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET AXIS WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  STEEP LAPSE RATES BENEATH
THE UPPER LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH...H5 TEMPS TO MINUS 22C...WILL
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ADVECT DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS ELEVATED CONVECTION...MUCH OF IT
FROZEN...MAY SPREAD ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE NWRN TX PANHANDLE.

..DARROW/JEWELL.. 11/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.