[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121620
SWODY1
SPC AC 121619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW PFN 10 WSW AUO
25 SSE CHA 50 NW TRI 20 SE BKW 10 N LYH 20 WSW NHK 25 ENE SBY
...CONT... 30 N DAB 60 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 55 WNW GBN
25 ENE BLH 50 NW EED 55 NNW ELY 25 SSW BYI 30 SE BPI 50 NW CAG 25 NE
GUC 20 S PUB 35 NE DHT 35 NW CDS 45 SSE CDS 55 NNW ABI 40 SSW ABI 15
SW JCT DRT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...N FL TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM THE ERN FL PANHANDLE NWD TO
CENTRAL GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX MOVING
EWD FROM AL TO GA...E OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD OVER N FL/GA TO SC BY THIS EVENING.  THE
WARM SECTOR IS MOIST WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG TODAY FROM N FL NEWD ACROSS
SE GA AND THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAINS. THE MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...BUT INSTABILITY AND L0W-MID LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS S GA/N FL...SPREADING NEWD INTO SC BY THIS
EVENING.  THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO...THOUGH EVEN THESE THREATS WILL BE LIMITED
BY A TENDENCY FOR WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME.

...SW STATES...
OUT WEST...A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING ESEWD OVER THE 
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/NRN BAJA...AROUND THE LARGER MID LEVEL LOW
OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN.  LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND
RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL OVER UT.  SOMEWHAT GREATER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM THE RIM COUNTRY OF
AZ EWD INTO NM...WHERE DEEP ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 11/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.