[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120045
SWODY1
SPC AC 120044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE 7R4 MCB 40 NE
JAN 20 W TUP 10 SE DYR PAH 20 WSW EVV 30 NE SDF 10 WNW HTS 20 WSW
SSU 45 S PSK 30 ENE SPA 35 SSW AGS 10 SE AYS 15 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BFL 40 E MER
TVL 20 NE LOL 40 NNW EKO 45 NNW EVW 30 ESE RWL 25 SSE LAR 30 S DEN
45 NNW ALS 30 NE DRO 25 SSE PGA 20 W IGM 25 NE DAG 50 NNE BFL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GULF STATES/TN VALLEY...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND TN VALLEY
INDICATE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  RECENT
RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST DEEP CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT AS VEERING DEEP LAYER FLOW APPEARS TO BE HURTING LARGE SCALE
CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ SHIFTS INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS.

...GREAT BASIN...

SWD-SAGGING UPPER JET WILL ALLOW STEEPER PLUME OF LAPSE RATES...IN
EXCESS OF 7-8C/KM...TO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVERNIGHT.  RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION IS OBSERVED ON
00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION...PER SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE
AT GJT...WWD TOWARD DRA.  ALTHOUGH LOSS OF HEATING WILL STABILIZE
THIS ZONE SOMEWHAT...IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE ASCENT NORTH OF JET AXIS
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED...MORE ELEVATED ACTIVITY
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 11/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.