[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111946
SWODY1
SPC AC 111944

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 40 S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 10 S ESF
25 E MLU 25 W GLH 20 SE LIT 25 ESE HRO 40 SSW TBN 45 E VIH 35 WNW
SDF 15 WNW BKW 10 ENE PSK 40 WNW GSO 20 W CLT 30 WNW AGS 60 SE MCN
25 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW UKI 20 WNW 4LW
45 SSW BNO 50 WSW BOI 30 NW TWF 10 SSW PIH 50 ESE JAC 15 ENE RIW 25
WNW RWL 40 ESE VEL 10 NE 4HV 55 NNE LAS 55 ESE FAT 45 WNW PRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LOW ACROSS SERN MO WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DAMPEN AND FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED ACROSS NORTH TX AND THIS 
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS EVENING. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PROVIDE STRONG LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INITIATING ACROSS NE AR AND THIS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPANDING EWD ACROSS
WRN TN AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING NRN MS. MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR...COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND
MARGINALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.0 C/KM WILL MAKE HAIL
MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS IN THIS AREA. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. AS INSTABILITY DROPS AFTER
DARK...THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS MS...AL AND SERN LA...DESTABILIZATION IS
ONGOING EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED ACROSS SERN LA
EXTENDING INTO CNTRL MS. THIS AXIS SHOULD EXPAND NWD ESPECIALLY AS
ADDITIONAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES EARLY
THIS EVENING...STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT IN ERN
MS...SPREADING EWD INTO AL. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL
SEVERE MULTICELLS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A LINE
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE WITH THE MOST
LIKELY THREAT WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED BECAUSE THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE
WILL NOT PHASE WELL WITH THE PERIOD OF MAXIMUM HEATING. THE LINE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD OVERNIGHT...REACHING WRN AND NRN GA BY
LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.