[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111627
SWODY1
SPC AC 111625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 40 S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW LCH 30 SSW ESF
35 SSW MLU 40 SSW PBF 25 WSW LIT 55 N HOT 30 S UMN 50 NNW SGF 20 NNE
VIH 35 SE BMG 10 SW UNI 25 SSW EKN 20 ESE ROA 40 WNW GSO 20 W CLT 30
WNW AGS 60 SE MCN 25 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 15 ENE SVE
35 NNE OWY 20 NW MLD 45 NE RKS 15 S RWL 30 W FCL 55 S 4FC 35 S GUC
25 S 4BL 20 SE SGU 35 NE BFL 10 SSW MRY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED LOW NOW CENTERED OVER NW AR /NEAR HRO/ HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT
SINCE YESTERDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY
AS IT HEADS FARTHER E INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ERN U.S.  AT THE
SURFACE...LOW NOW N OF LIT SHOULD SLOWLY FILL AS IT HEADS E TO NEAR
MEM THIS EVENING AND TO NEAR HSV FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED BY /1/ PRESENCE OF SQUALL LINE
WHICH DEVELOPED FROM LAST EVENING'S STORMS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS SE AR/NW MS.../2/ COLD FRONT NOW OVER WRN LA...AND /3/
DEVELOPMENT OF SEPARATE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT WHICH ATTM EXTENDS N
FROM THE CNTRL GULF INTO WRN AL.  ALL OF THESE FEATURES WILL LIKELY
SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.

...CNTRL GULF CST TO LWR TN VLY...
MODEST SURFACE HEATING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF NW AR UPPER
VORT AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION AT MID LEVELS SHOULD DESTABILIZE REGION
JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW CROSSING ERN AR/W TN AND NRN MS LATER
TODAY...BOOSTING AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG.  WITH 40-45 KT
WSWLY 500 MB FLOW PRESENT TO ENHANCE DEEP SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE
SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND MAY EXTEND AS FAR N
AS EXTREME SE MO/SW KY.

FARTHER S...A SEPARATE AREA OF LOCALLY ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP IN WEDGE OF FAIRLY RICH GULF RETURN FLOW BOUNDED BY LA/AR
COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE ON THE WEST AND AL/FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ON THE EAST.  MLCAPE IN THIS REGION IS ALREADY
AROUND 500 J/KG AND SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH SURFACE
HEATING LATER IN THE DAY.  BUT...WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
EXIST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK.  THIS...COUPLED WITH COMPARATIVELY MODEST MID
LEVEL FLOW /500 MB SPEEDS AOB 35 KTS/...SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LOW.  BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND LOW LCLS INVOF BOUNDARY IN AL/FAR WRN FL MAY NEVERTHELESS YIELD
A BRIEF TORNADO IN THAT REGION.  ISOLATED WIND GUSTS SHOULD POSE THE
GREATEST THREAT WITH ANY STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SQUALL LINE.

...CNTRL CA INTO NV...
A FEW DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY
AFFECT NRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL VLY OF CA AND PARTS OF CNTRL NV LATER
TODAY...AS SRN MEMBER OF REX-TYPE BLOCK EDGES SLOWLY E ACROSS
REGION.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 11/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.