[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111251
SWODY1
SPC AC 111249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 40 S CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW GLS 30 NNW HOU
LFK 25 NNE SHV 35 SSE HOT 50 SSE HRO UMN 50 NNW SGF 10 W JEF 10 ESE
BMG 10 SW UNI 25 SSW EKN 15 ENE LYH 35 ESE GSO 15 SSE CLT 35 N AGS
60 SE MCN 45 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EKA 25 ESE 4LW 35 NNE
OWY 20 NW MLD 45 NE RKS 15 S RWL 30 W FCL 55 S 4FC 35 S GUC 25 S 4BL
20 SE SGU 60 S BIH 10 SSW MRY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL GULF STATES/TN VALLEY...
THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING EWD ACROSS SRN U.S. PAST
COUPLE OF DAY CURRENTLY LOCATED SWRN CORNER OF MO. SYSTEM NOW MOVING
EWD INTO A CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS TN VALLEY TODAY/TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY FEATURE WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IS THE INSTABILITY LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM TN/AR BORDER
SWWD INTO NWRN LA.

GULF INFLOW HAS WEAKENED WITH TIME AS SURFACE LOW NOW OVER NRN AR
FILLS AND WINDS ALOFT VEER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW FILLS. 
THUS THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WILL NOT EXTEND
FAR INLAND ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS AND AL.

WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF INSTABILITY LINE AND 40 KTS OF
MID LEVEL FLOW... WILL CONTINUE A MARGINAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
INTENSIFYING BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ONLY CONCERN SHOULD BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE INSTABILITY LINE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS
WRN TN AND MS INTO WRN AL.  ANY THREAT SHOULD END BY EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AND THE CONTINUED OVERALL WEAKENING TREND OF TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS TN VALLEY.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.