[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110102
SWODY1
SPC AC 110100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
PRX 20 E DUA 35 N ADM 40 NE OKC 20 E PNC 35 ENE BVO 45 SSW HRO 20
NNE HOT 25 S HOT TXK 15 ENE PRX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BIH 50 NW BIH 30
W RNO 15 ENE SVE 65 ENE SVE 25 NW WMC 25 NW BAM 55 SSW EKO 70 ENE
TPH 35 SE TPH 35 E BIH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 35 SSE DAL
35 E FSI OKC END 35 E P28 35 WNW EMP 20 E TOP JEF 30 SSW BLV 25 SSE
PAH 20 NNE MSL 15 SE 0A8 PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR...

...ERN OK...

DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...JUST NORTH OF MAIN JET OVER NERN THROUGH SERN OK.  THIS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE
PLUME/NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH IS SLOWLY STABILIZING WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.  00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN DEPICTED VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM. THIS APPARENTLY
COMPENSATED FOR THE WEAK SBCAPE VALUES AIDING ROBUST LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL
CONTINUE DESPITE A SLOW INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...ALBEIT MORE
LINEAR IN NATURE DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT NEEDED TO FORCE DEEP
CONVECTION.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DARROW.. 11/11/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.