[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102001
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST WED NOV 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
PRX 20 SE DUA 35 NW ADM 45 NNE CSM 30 NNE GAG 25 WNW P28 30 NE P28
35 ENE BVO 45 SSW HRO 20 NNE HOT 25 S HOT TXK 25 SE PRX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BPT 35 SSE DAL
15 NNW LTS 50 SSW LBL 15 WNW EHA 35 ESE LAA 55 NNW GCK 10 ESE MHK
JEF 30 SSW BLV 25 SSE PAH 20 NNE MSL 15 SE 0A8 PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E BIH 50 NW BIH 30
W RNO 15 ENE SVE 65 ENE SVE 25 NW WMC 25 NW BAM 55 SSW EKO 70 ENE
TPH 35 SE TPH 35 E BIH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK...FAR NE
TX...WRN AR AND SRN KS...

...OK/SRN KS/FAR NE TX/WRN AR...
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW
MOVING EWD ACROSS SW KS AND NW OK. A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE
SRN SIDE OF THE LOW IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY ACROSS WRN OK. AS A
RESULT...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S F ACROSS SW OK WITH
SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG IN PARTS OF WRN OK. THIS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE
WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN WRN OK. THE FRONT WILL DRIVE THE SFC
LOW SEWD INTO SRN OK BY 00Z. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
EAST AND NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND A LINE OF STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A NARROW MOIST AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE LINE SHOULD
DEVELOP AND EXPAND SWD AS IT MOVES EWD INTO ERN OK EARLY THIS
EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR CNTRL/ERN OK AT 00Z SHOW STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 65 KT MID-LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE ADVECTION AT
LOW-LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPS AT MID-LEVELS WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
MAKING CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. IN
ADDITION...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL ENHANCE THE
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE FASTER MOVING STORM SEGMENTS.
ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS
ERN OK AND FAR NE TX WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY...STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOWEST LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD BE LOCATED.

MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK THIS EVENING. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT CONTINUING. A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT COULD CONTINUE LATE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO ERN AR
AND NWRN LA.

..BROYLES.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.