[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101632
SWODY1
SPC AC 101630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
P28 30 NE P28 40 ENE BVO 25 SSW HRO 40 N HOT TXK 30 SE DUA 40 S OKC
30 SSW END 50 SW P28.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE BAM 60 NW P38
65 ESE BIH 50 ESE BIH 55 NW BIH 35 WSW RNO 40 S SVE 25 NE SVE 25 NW
WMC 35 NE BAM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S HUM 25 NE LFT 40
N BPT 45 SSE CLL 35 ENE AUS 35 ENE ABI 20 SSW LTS 20 S GAG 20 SE LBL
35 WNW GCK 55 SE GLD 10 ENE MHK 20 SE SZL 25 SSE BLV 30 SSE OWB 30
WSW HSV 25 N MEI 30 SSW MOB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN KS/OK
AND WRN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE SHOULD TRACK DUE EWD
TODAY...AND REACH THE NW CORNER OF AR EARLY THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN AS ITS CONTINUES E INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LWR OH
VLY LATER THURSDAY.

ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW...NOW OVER WRN KS...WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP SE
INTO NRN OK BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES E AWAY FROM
THE RCKYS.  BY EARLY EVENING...EXPECT THAT DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE LOW WILL HAVE ADVANCED TO NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN OK.  FARTHER N...COLD FRONT NOW SURGING S ACROSS ERN CO
AND NEB SHOULD MERGE WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE KS
LOW.  THE COMBINED BOUNDARIES SHOULD ACCELERATE SE ACROSS SRN KS/OK
AND N TX LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

...OK/FAR SRN KS INTO WRN AR...
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
LOW-TOPPED...SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE SRN PLNS E/SE INTO THE SWRN PARTS OF THE
OZARKS.

MODEST SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER WRN/NW OK AND SW/S CNTRL KS
THIS AFTERNOON...IN WAKE OF WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FORCED ASCENT
CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM CNTRL OK INTO S CNTRL KS.  AT THE
SAME TIME...MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION /500 MB TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS
20 C PER 12Z AMA RAOB/ WILL OVERSPREAD REGION AS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW CONTINUES EWD.  COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW AND
DOWNWARD MIXING OF MOISTURE FROM THE 925/850 MB LAYER...EXPECT THAT
MLCAPE WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER
PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN OK/EXTREME SRN KS.

DPVA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR NRN OK SURFACE LOW BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR S FROM THE LOW ALONG TRAILING DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH INTO CNTRL/ERN OK SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE DAY OR TONIGHT AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE TO AROUND 55-60F.  DEEP WSWLY SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...RANGING FROM NEAR 40 KTS IN
NRN OK TO AOA 50 KTS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.  DESPITE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED CAPE...THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG TO OFFSET THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS GIVEN STRONG
MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT.

OVERALL SETUP SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A FEW STORMS WITH SEVERE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO IN SLIGHT RISK
AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO
A BROKEN...PARTIALLY ELEVATED SQUALL LINE OVER WRN/CNTRL AR EARLY
THURSDAY.

..CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.