[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101301
SWODY1
SPC AC 101259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST WED NOV 10 2004

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE
OKC 15 ENE TUL 25 NNE FYV 40 S HRO 25 WNW HOT 45 NNE TXK 15 N TXK 10
ENE PRX 20 NE ADM 55 ESE OKC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELY 65 WNW P38
65 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 E FAT 60 N SAC 40 ESE RBL 20 WNW SVE 30 WNW
WMC 50 WNW ENV 25 ESE ENV 50 SW DPG 55 SE ELY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 40 NW BTR 20
SW POE 30 NE HOU 50 S CLL 35 ENE AUS 15 SSW SEP 30 SSW LTS 65 SW GAG
10 NE EHA 20 N GLD 30 SE MCK 30 SSW FNB 45 NNW SZL 10 SSW ALN 20 SW
OWB 45 SW BNA 40 S SEM 20 WNW PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN OK/WRN AR...

...ERN OK/WRN AR...

COLD UPR LOW MOVING EWD CO-LOCATED WITH SURFACE LOW OK PANHANDLE AT
12Z. 40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET CENTRAL TX INTO WRN OK CONTINUES TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD.  BAND OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY
FORCED ASCENT AND LITTLE AVAILABLE CAPE WRN OK EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AND MOVE EWD MOSTLY ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED ON THE RETURN FLOW FROM WESTERN
GULF...HOWEVER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE COLD AIR
ADVECTING EWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO
UPPER 50S SERN OK ALONG WITH 7C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

BY LATE AFTERNOON UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EWD TO CENTRAL OK/KS
BORDER WITH CONTINUED 30-40 KT SLY LLJ ERN OK/WRN AR AND 60KT 500 MB
WIND MAX ROTATING EWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ACROSS SRN OK INTO WRN AR.

LAST TWO ETA RUNS INDICATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE PCPN SIGNAL
DEVELOPING ERN OK 21-00Z SHIFTING EWD INTO WRN AR DURING THE
EVENING.  ETA DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPES TO 1000 J/KG INTO SERN THIRD OK
LATE THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DIFFERENTIAL TEMP
ADVECTION AHEAD OF UPPER LOW ALONG WITH MDT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE NOTED
ON 12Z SOUNDINGS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT OUN/FTW.

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ERN OK WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING STORMS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO
OCCUR GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.  ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN AR WITH SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING LATE EVENING
AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.