[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100536
SWODY1
SPC AC 100534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ELY 65 WNW P38
65 ESE BIH 60 S BIH 30 E FAT 60 N SAC 40 ESE RBL 20 WNW SVE 30 WNW
WMC 50 WNW ENV 25 ESE ENV 50 SW DPG 55 SE ELY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 40 NW BTR 20
SW POE 30 NE HOU 50 S CLL 35 ENE AUS 15 SSW SEP 30 SSW LTS 65 SW GAG
45 SSW LAA 35 NW GLD 25 S MCK 30 SSW FNB 45 NNW SZL 25 NE ALN 20 SW
OWB BNA 40 S SEM 20 WNW PFN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL CO/N-CNTRL NM/ IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSLATES ESEWD AND PHASES WITH
INTENSIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SURFACE...PACIFIC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO CO/NM SYSTEM WILL
PUSH EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CNTRL OR S-CNTRL OK SWD INTO CNTRL TX BY EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY SWD
THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND WRN GREAT LAKES TODAY...EVENTUALLY
OVERTAKING PACIFIC FRONT BY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION.

...OK/AR/TX/LA...
10/00Z SRN PLAINS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A
MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS RETURNING NWD AHEAD OF PACIFIC
FRONT OWING TO A SHALLOW ELY FETCH OFF THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA.

STRONGLY-FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE IN PROGRESS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TX
PNHDL/WRN TX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST
OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE ENEWD TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM SLOWER SURFACE FRONT WITHIN
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG 35-45 KT LLJ. ADDITIONAL STRONG TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ALONG PACIFIC FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF ERN OK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY /I.E.
MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG/. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLY STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES AND FORCED ASCENT ALONG FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL...STRONG WINDS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

EXPECT MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO SHIFT EWD INTO AR
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY EXTENDING AS FAR S AS NERN TX/NRN LA.

..MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.