[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100033
SWODY1
SPC AC 100032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0632 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW LBB 25 N ROW
15 N GNT 25 SW CEZ 55 NNE 4BL 35 NNW GJT 40 NNW CAG 30 E RWL 25 SW
BFF HLC 30 NE P28 20 SW OKC 70 SSE CDS 55 SSW LBB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED/INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NERN NM ALONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO SWD ACROSS ERN NM AND INTO FAR WRN TX.
INSPECTION OF THE 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND A SUBSTANTIAL CAP ABOVE 800-750 MB
HAVE HAD A CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WRN TX. NONETHELESS...A ZONE OF FORCED
MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT ON WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY SUSTAIN CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND FAR SWRN KS TONIGHT.

DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OBSERVED ON CURRENT CLOVIS VWP
AND 00Z AMA/MAF SOUNDINGS...IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..MEAD.. 11/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.