[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092002
SWODY1
SPC AC 092000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW LBB 25 N ROW
15 N GNT 35 ENE PGA 40 SE U24 25 SE SLC 30 SSE BPI 40 WSW CPR 25 SW
BFF HLC 30 NE P28 20 SW OKC 70 SSE CDS 55 SSW LBB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX/OK PANHANDLES...NE NM AND LOWER AR RIVER VALLEY...
A WELL-DEVELOPED CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EWD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY CAUSING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO RAPIDLY
STEEPEN ACROSS NE NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL CREATE
INSTABILITY WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FROM
WEST TO EAST WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM INITIATION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NE NM LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD
ONTO THE CAPROCK DURING THE EVENING HOURS...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE THE ST0RMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE. A SMALL LINEAR MCS APPEARS LIKELY WHICH WOULD
TRACK EWD ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 06Z IN DALHART SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF
AROUND 45 KT WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
HAIL. THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO THE WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. ALSO...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND 0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
CONSIDERING THE WRF MODEL SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE LINEAR.
HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY STORM MOTION AROUND 25 KT MAY LIMIT THE WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. THE MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EWD REACHING WRN
OK AND SRN KS LATE TONIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 11/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.