[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091628
SWODY1
SPC AC 091626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N GNT 30 ESE PGA
40 SE U24 25 SE SLC 25 SSW BPI 15 S CPR 50 N CYS HLC 25 SSW ICT 30
SSW OKC 70 SSE CDS 30 NNE HOB 30 NNW ROW 25 E ABQ 10 N GNT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE ON THE LARGE
SCALE. THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER SRN CANADA...WITH
A PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM EXTENDING FROM THE WEST COAST EWD INTO SRN
PLAINS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY TROUGH
OF CONVECTIVE INTEREST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RETURN NWD INTO
THE SRN PLAINS AND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MID-MORNING SFC MAP INDICATED THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WAS
UNDERWAY OVER THE SRN PLAINS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF BROAD SFC
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION. UA ANALYSIS INDICATED
850-700 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING SW-NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
WAS MOVING THROUGH WRN NM. THIS THERMAL RIDGE ALONG WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN/UPSLOPE FLOW HAS AIDED IN WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER
OVER NERN NM/WRN TX PANHANDLE AS EVIDENT ON VIS SAT IMAGERY. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY SLOWLY ERODE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW MAINTAINS THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION. BOTH RUC/ETAKF SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE STRENGTH OF
THE INVERSION WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING /23Z-01Z TIME FRAME/ WHEN STRONG
DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD WITH SFC COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE /NERN NM AND FAR SERN CO/.

A MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH AT 500 MB WAS EAST OF THE SFC COLD FRONT
OVER WRN NM...AND WILL AID IN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
ERN NM/SERN CO DURING THE AFTERNOON. 7.5-8.0 DEG C/KM LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPES
FROM 400-800 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6
KM...THIS MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
TO NO MORE THAN A MARGINAL THREAT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR A CONVECTIVE LINE...WITH DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE INITIALLY
OVER NERN NM. LARGE HAIL APPEARS MORE LIKELY INITIALLY WHERE THE
STEEPEST LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST AND IF DISCRETE CELLS CAN DEVELOP.
MARGINAL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS LINEAR MODE BECOMES MORE LIKELY AND THE
LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS.

..CROSBIE/HART.. 11/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.