[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091251
SWODY1
SPC AC 091249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2004

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 4SL 75 NNE INW
45 N GCN 25 N MLF 20 W SLC 30 S BPI 15 SSE CPR 50 NNE CYS 20 S SNY
30 WNW LBF 25 NE GRI 15 NE SLN 25 WSW ICT 40 ESE GAG 20 WSW LBB 30
NNE ROW 30 SSW LVS 20 SW 4SL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

UPR LOW AT 12Z OVER SWRN UT WILL CONTINUE EWD MOVEMENT THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD REACHING THE CENTRAL CO/NM BORDER BY THIS EVENING
AND VICINITY OK/SWRN KS BORDER BY 12Z WED. LEE TROUGHING CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE SLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COOLER AIR
MASS THAT WILL SPREAD EWD TONIGHT FROM SRN ROCKIES.

LIMITED AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW 50S TX PANHANDLE/ERN NM BORDER REGION BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER SYSTEM
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES IN THE LEE TROUGH TO IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM SRN
HI PLAINS.  MUCAPES NO GREATER THAN 500 J/KG LIMITS THE CONCERN FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS AGREE THAT STRONGER VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO AROUND 00Z..WHICH WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND E OF LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.
 WITH 50KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS
OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 50 KT.

KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT ATTM THE EXPECTED
AND PROGGED MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES A SEVERE RISK
AREA.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 11/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.