[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090531
SWODY1
SPC AC 090530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST MON NOV 08 2004

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 4SL 75 NNE INW
45 N GCN 25 N MLF 20 W SLC 30 S BPI 15 SSE CPR 50 NNE CYS 20 S SNY
30 WNW LBF 25 NE GRI 15 NE SLN 25 WSW ICT 40 ESE GAG 20 WSW LBB 30
NNE ROW 30 SSW LVS 20 SW 4SL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW /CURRENTLY OVER NWRN AZ/SWRN UT/ IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION TODAY AND INTO THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
EMERGING FROM THE TROUGH BASE NEAR TUS /PER 09/00Z UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS/ WILL CONCURRENTLY PROPAGATE EWD AND OVERSPREAD THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER SERN WY/NERN CO TODAY WITH
TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO
THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...AIR
MASS RETURNING ONSHORE ACROSS DEEP S TX INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY IS MODIFIED CONTINENTAL IN CHARACTER OWING TO ONLY A SHORT
RESIDENCE TIME OVER THE NWRN GULF. MOREOVER...09/00Z UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE ONLY
MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /I.E. 7-7.5 C/KM/ ASSOCIATED
WITH SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER LIMIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER NERN
NM/SERN CO AS PACIFIC FRONT ENCOUNTERS WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS. THOUGH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...IT APPEARS THAT THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO
IMPEDE STORM ORGANIZATION. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A
FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR
LARGE HAIL. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST EWD INTO THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND
FAR SWRN KS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

..MEAD/BANACOS.. 11/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.