[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041955
SWODY1
SPC AC 041953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST THU NOV 04 2004

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
CHS 10 ESE FLO RWI 35 WNW ORF 10 E WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW UKI 10 SW SAC
10 WNW FAT 10 ESE SMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DAB 10 NNW SRQ
...CONT... 20 SSW AQQ 35 ENE ABY 35 N AGS 55 WNW AND 25 W HSS 20 SE
HTS ZZV CAK 10 SSE TOL JXN MBS 45 SSE PLN 35 ENE MQT ...CONT... 40
NNE ART 20 NNW UCA 10 SE BFD MGW HKY 10 E GSO 45 ENE LYH 20 ESE CXY
POU ORH 15 E BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS....

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
LIFTING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AS NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  PHASING OF THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
LARGE-SCALE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES BY FRIDAY MORNING.  IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPPER FLOW
PATTERN...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM NEAR THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS.

WAVE IS ALREADY EVIDENT IN SURFACE DATA ALONG FRONTAL ZONE IN THE
LEE OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
PERTURBATION WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FROM WEST CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 05/00Z...BEFORE DEEPENING OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST LATE THIS EVENING.  AS THIS OCCURS...COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...OFF THE MID AND SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST.

LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES NEGLIGIBLE 100 MB MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...DUE TO
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...LEADING
EDGE OF MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH
ALREADY APPEARS TO BE ADVANCING EAST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOIST PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LAYER SHORTLY AFTER 05/00Z.  AS INHIBITION DECREASES...
MODELS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 500
J/KG...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...WHERE AT LEAST NARROW LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.

THOUGH VIGOR OF UPDRAFTS WILL BE LIMITED...PRESENCE OF CONVECTION IN
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...WITH MEAN SPEEDS INCREASING IN
EXCESS OF 50 KT...WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
TRANSFER...AND RISK OF DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 05/0Z.

...GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY...
THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
FORCING FOR ACTIVITY.  CAPE WILL ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND THREAT SHOULD END EARLY THIS EVENING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND FORCING SHIFTS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION/
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN BANDS
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.

...CALIFORNIA...
A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH CUT-OFF LOW...ACROSS PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 11/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.