[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041627
SWODY1
SPC AC 041625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
CHS CAE SOP RWI 25 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SFO 45 NNW SAC
15 WNW RNO 40 ENE TVL 45 NW BIH 55 SE FAT 25 WNW BFL 20 NW SMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DAB 10 NNW SRQ
...CONT... 10 SW PNS 20 ESE MGM 30 NE ANB 30 S CSV 20 ENE LOZ 20 W
HTS 20 ESE CMH 25 NW MFD 15 NNE FWA 30 SSW SBN 40 SE CGX 20 ESE CGX
25 N MKG TVC 55 WNW PLN 35 NNE MQT ...CONT... 10 NW ART 25 NNE UCA
20 SSW UCA 35 NW ITH 30 NW ELM 25 WSW ELM 20 SW AVP 30 SSE MSV 20 E
POU 15 SW ORH 25 NE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NC/SC...

UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND TRACK
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  MORNING RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW FRONTAL BAND
MOVING THROUGH GA AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS SLOWLY DESTABILIZING AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
SPREAD HIGH THETA-E AIR MASS NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN NC.  SCATTERED
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW POCKETS OF MLCAPE OF UP TO 1000
J/KG.  POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED CELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS INTENSIFYING CONVECTION ON THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...AND LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL. 
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR A RISK OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE
BY EARLY EVENING...ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.

..HART/JEWELL.. 11/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.