[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 041248
SWODY1
SPC AC 041246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST THU NOV 04 2004

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
CHS 30 NE CAE 30 NNW SOP 60 NNE RWI 40 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ROC 25 SSW ELM 20 SW
AVP 30 SSE MSV 20 E POU 15 SW ORH 25 NE BOS ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 55
SSE CTY ...CONT... 10 SW PNS 20 ESE MGM 35 NE ANB 45 SSW LOZ 10 E
LEX 15 WSW LUK 20 W FWA AZO 15 WNW FNT 30 SW OSC PLN 60 E MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SFO 45 NNW SAC
15 WNW RNO 40 ENE TVL 40 NW BIH 55 SE FAT 20 WSW OXR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
EXTREME SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF THE SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/TN
VLYS AND NRN STREAM IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MS VLY WILL TAKE
PLACE LATER TODAY.  BY TONIGHT...A DEEP COLD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
NEW ENGLAND WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS SYSTEM BRUSHING THE SERN
STATES.  

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW VCNTY KFWA AT 12Z WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO STRONG H5 HEIGHT FALLS.  THE LOW WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRIDAY.  TRAILING FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE OH VLY/APPALACHIAN REGION THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. 
A WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
DELMARVA THROUGH TONIGHT.  TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE COASTAL
LOW AND FRONTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERE TSTM RISKS RELEGATED
TO THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA.

...ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...
HYBRID WEDGE SITUATION HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY WARM ADVECTION DERIVED
RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS SRN VA THIS MORNING.  AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL
ACROSS THE OH VLY/MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL INCREASE. THUS...THE 60S DEW POINTS OBSERVED ACROSS SC WILL
ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND SERN VA WHILE THE WEDGE IS LIKELY MAINTAINED ACROSS CNTRL VA AND
WRN NC.  THOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OWING TO STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION...LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SUNSHINE MAY INHIBIT CAPES FROM
RISING ABOVE 1000 J/KG.  

THAT PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND OBSERVED FROM WRN NC TO WRN FL
PNHDL MAY WEAKEN THIS MORNING...BUT WILL EITHER INTENSIFY OR DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AS STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER TROUGH COMPENSATES FOR WEAK BUOYANCY.  GIVEN INCREASING
UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY MID-UPPER FLOW FIELDS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
FEW TSTMS MAY BOW PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLD TORNADO MAY
ALSO OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY COASTAL BOUNDARY/APPROACHING COLD FRONT
INTERSECTIONS ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA.  

TSTMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY RATHER RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...OFFSHORE
ERN NC WHERE THE OCEANIC BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

..RACY/GUYER.. 11/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.