[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040545
SWODY1
SPC AC 040543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST WED NOV 03 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
CHS 30 NE CAE 30 NNW SOP 60 NNE RWI 40 SSW WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW SFO 45 NNW SAC
15 WNW RNO 40 ENE TVL 40 NW BIH 55 SE FAT 20 WSW OXR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW PNS 20 S MGM
10 E GAD 15 WNW CSV 40 NE SDF 20 NNE IND 50 S SBN 15 SSW AZO 20 WNW
FNT 25 SSW OSC PLN 60 E MQT ...CONT... ROC 25 SSW ELM 20 SW AVP 30
SSE MSV 20 NE POU 10 WSW ORH 25 S PSM ...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 55 SSE
CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA...THE SRN TIP OF DELMARVA
PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL
BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY AND RESULT IN ERN GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST
CYCLOGENESIS ON THURSDAY. HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M PER 12H AND
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OF 60-80KT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS CONSOLIDATE. COLD FRONT...NOW
MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH...WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY...AND
THEN OFFSHORE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

COLD CORE CUTOFF LOW WILL MEANDER ALONG THE CNTRL CA COAST...PERHAPS
DRIFTING SLOWLY SWWD.

...ERN CAROLINAS/EXTREME SERN VA AND TIP OF DELMARVA...
ETA HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
SOMEWHAT MEAGER MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG...MAGNITUDE OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING SPREADING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AREAS SHOULD PROMOTE
PREFRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. A WARM FRONT
WILL ALSO BE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NERN NC AND SERN VA DURING THIS
TIME BUT GIVEN DRY CP AIR MASS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AREAS...EXPECT WARM FRONT CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ELEVATED ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A NARROW WARM SECTOR SHOULD DEVELOP
FROM NRN SC INTO EXTREME SERN VA WHERE FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE TOPPED BY INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR
INTRUSION. TSTMS IN SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD AT
UP TO 50KT AND POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. LOW TORNADO
PROBABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER RH.

..CARBIN/GUYER.. 11/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.