[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 040102
SWODY1
SPC AC 040101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST WED NOV 03 2004

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BVE 10 NW LUL
20 SSE UOX 30 E JBR 45 NNW POF 15 SSE VIH 25 NW TBN 55 SSE SZL 25
SSW SZL 40 S P35 35 NNW IRK 35 W MLI 10 WNW RFD 25 ESE MKE 10 E GRR
35 ESE TOL 20 SE ZZV 35 W BKW 25 SE 5I3 20 ESE TRI 25 WSW GSO 10 NNE
SOP 30 NNW CRE 20 W CHS 50 ENE MCN 35 SE CSG 30 ENE MAI 10 SW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW UKI 35 NNE UKI
30 ESE RBL 45 NW TVL 50 ENE MER 10 ESE FAT 40 WNW BFL 25 SSW PRB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH/TN VALLEY...
STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SCNTRL U.S. THIS EVENING WILL ACCELERATE NEWD
TO THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT AS 90KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX SPREADS ENEWD
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
NEAR MEM THIS EVENING TO NEAR IND BY MORNING. WARM/MOIST GULF AIR
MASS CURRENTLY FUELING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS AL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NORTH AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN INCREASING TSTMS FROM TN TO
THE OH VALLEY.

TSTMS CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD FROM AL/MS BORDER AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF AL...AND
INTO NRN GA AND THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK. MORE ISOLD STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS. A
COUPLE OF SMALL SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON AREA RADARS FROM
MS/AL THIS EVENING...AND LATEST BMX RAOB WAS SHOWING MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY TO SUPPORT MESOCYCLONES. PRIMARY
LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN RELATIVELY WEAK UPDRAFTS.
NONETHELESS...GIVEN EXISTENCE OF ROTATING STORMS AND HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RH...A BRIEF/ISOLD TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FARTHER NORTH....STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL JET STREAK MAY RESULT IN STRONGER CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/TRIPLE POINT LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY...DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAK CAPE/HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...MAY POSE A SMALL PROBABILITY WIND THREAT AS SHORT
CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS MOVE OVER PARTS OF NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN.

..CARBIN.. 11/04/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.