[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031957
SWODY1
SPC AC 031955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST WED NOV 03 2004

VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUM 10 ESE MCB
GLH PBF 55 S HRO 20 ESE UMN 30 NW SGF 10 E SZL BRL 35 WNW MMO CGX
AZO 10 SW DTW CLE 35 SSE CAK 45 SE PKB 15 NW BKW 20 SE TRI 35 N SPA
40 NNE CAE 30 ESE CAE 50 SE AGS 40 ESE MCN 35 N ABY 30 ENE MAI 10 SW
AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EKA 10 ESE EKA
25 ENE RBL 45 NW TVL 50 ENE MER 10 ESE FAT 40 WNW BFL 15 WNW VBG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AS SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ALONG THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED
LOW...DOWNSTREAM CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG MID/UPPER JET ON SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF LATTER FEATURE IS CURRENTLY NOSING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THIS
OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST SURFACE LOW...NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ARKANSAS/MISSISSIPPI BORDER...WILL MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

...GULF COAST INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
WEAK WARM SECTOR LAPSE RATES DUE TO POSITIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION OF
UPPER SYSTEM STILL APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WITH REGARD
TO MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE THREAT TODAY.  DESPITE
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI...WEAK HEATING IS ONLY RESULTING IN
MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG.  WITH WARM SECTOR SHEAR
PROFILES ALSO LIKELY TO REMAIN MODERATE AT BEST...SEVERE THREAT WITH
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS RATHER MINIMAL. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW DUE TO UPPER RIDGE NEAR/EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...BUT ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADS
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES.

STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BASED ABOVE WARM
FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER.  WEAK CAPE WILL LIMIT HAIL THREAT...BUT 
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS 
ILLINOIS/INDIANA...WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

...CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...
MID-LEVEL COOLING/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING UPPER LOW MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 11/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.