[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 030554
SWODY1
SPC AC 030552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW 7R4 20 ENE ESF
40 ENE MLU 45 ENE PBF 10 NNW UNO 25 SW UIN 35 NW PIA 40 E RFD AZO 10
SW DTW 25 NNE CAK 15 NW HLG 25 NE CRW 10 W BKW 35 SW PSK 20 ENE HKY
45 NE CAE 30 S CAE 30 ENE MCN 35 N ABY 30 ENE MAI AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW UKI 45 ENE UKI
30 SW SVE 55 NE SVE 25 W WMC 30 SW BAM 25 ESE U31 40 NE TPH 50 S TPH
35 WSW NID 25 W LAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS WRN N TX IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS OK AND THE OZARKS REGION...AND SHOULD CROSS
THE MS RIVER INTO IL LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THOUGH THIS LOW WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS PERIOD...A
STRONGER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP / MOVE SSEWD ACROSS CA THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...LOW INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NNEWD WITH TIME EVENTUALLY REACHING THE LOWER OH
VALLEY...WHILE MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR RETURNS NWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE TN VALLEY.  ASSOCIATED /
N-S COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS LA / MS / AL THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY...
MAIN FORECAST QUESTION THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEGREE OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MS / AL / TN AND VICINITY -- WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
DETERMINED TO A LARGE DEGREE BY AMOUNT OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL LA AND INTO SWRN MS ATTM...AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE PERIOD.

THOUGH VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS /
PRECIPITATION SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.  

DESPITE THIS...STRONG /80 KT/ SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SHIFT
EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS.  GIVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF
WIND FIELD MOVING EWD INTO THIS REGION...SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED IN LATER FORECASTS IF MORE SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
-- HINTED AT BY ETAKF AND GFS -- CAN EVOLVE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

..GOSS.. 11/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.